How Brexit, Covid and the 2022 Mini‑Budget have reshaped UK mental health
A new study links five national shocks – Brexit, Covid lockdowns, the Ukraine war and the 2022 mini‑budget – to a lasting rise in UK psychological distress and NHS demand.
Lead
A decade of political upheaval, a global pandemic and an invading war have left a measurable scar on the mental wellbeing of the UK population. The evidence suggests that each "shock" added a distinct layer of stress, and together they have driven a sustained rise in GP consultations for depression and a near‑doubling of NHS mental‑health contacts.
The study behind the headlines
According to Health, researchers led by Dr Annie Jeffery at University College London examined data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, covering 87,857 adults between 2009 and 2024. Using the General Health Questionnaire‑12 (GHQ‑12), a validated screen that scores symptoms of anxiety and depression, they quantified how five major events altered the nation’s average score. The GHQ‑12 is a self‑report tool where higher scores indicate greater psychological distress; a shift of a few points across the whole population can translate into hundreds of thousands of extra people seeking help.
How each shock translated into numbers
| Event | Date | Immediate rise in GP‑depression contacts* | Ongoing monthly rise (if reported) | Contextual trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brexit referendum | June 2016 | ~120,000 extra people over the following months | – | Vote to leave the EU created uncertainty about jobs, trade and identity |
| First Covid lockdown | March 2020 | ~900,000 extra people over the following months | – | Nationwide stay‑at‑home order, loss of routine and social contact |
| Second Covid lockdown | Late 2020‑early 2021 | (not quantified separately) | – | Re‑imposition of restrictions after initial easing |
| Russia’s invasion of Ukraine | February 2022 | ~15,000 extra people per month | Ongoing monthly rise while conflict persisted | Media coverage of war, fear of energy price spikes |
| Liz Truss mini‑budget | September 2022 | ~23,000 extra people per month | Ongoing monthly rise during cost‑of‑living squeeze | Tax cuts and borrowing spooked markets, fueling inflation |
*Numbers are presented as the study’s estimates of additional people who visited a GP because of depressive symptoms.
The first Covid lockdown produced by far the largest spike, equivalent to nearly a million more GP visits for depression. Brexit and the mini‑budget generated smaller but still substantial increases, while the Ukraine war added a steady monthly burden.
Why these events matter for mental health
The mechanisms the authors point to are not new in psychology. A sudden, large‑scale change – whether political, economic or geopolitical – can erode what researchers call "psychological safety". When people feel that the rules governing their lives may change overnight, the brain’s threat‑response system stays active, raising cortisol and other stress hormones. Prolonged activation impairs mood regulation, sleep, and can precipitate anxiety or depressive episodes.
Austerity measures that began after the 2008 financial crisis left many households with limited savings. The study’s co‑author notes that this lack of a financial buffer meant the population was less able to absorb later shocks. In practice this usually means that a person who loses a modest amount of income or faces uncertain immigration status is more likely to experience chronic worry, which in turn raises the risk of clinical depression.
Comparing the impact to other drivers of distress
Mental ill‑health already cost the UK £300 billion a year, according to the Centre for Mental Health. The study adds a temporal dimension: the baseline level of distress was already climbing from 2009, but after 2015 the slope accelerated. When the five shocks are placed alongside longer‑term drivers – such as housing unaffordability, rising student debt and digital overload – the picture becomes one of cumulative pressure.
The BMJ Mental Health paper shows that, even three years after the latest shock (the 2022 mini‑budget), the national GHQ‑12 score has not returned to pre‑2016 levels. In concrete terms, NHS England’s mental‑health service contacts rose from 2.64 million in 2016‑17 to 4.13 million in 2024‑25, almost a 60 % increase. Monthly new referrals jumped from 360 000 in April 2022 to 530 000 in July 2026 – a 47 % rise.
Who gains and who loses?
- NHS services – The surge in demand strains waiting lists, reduces face‑to‑face time, and forces clinicians to triage more aggressively. While increased awareness may bring more funding, the immediate effect is longer waits for therapy and medication reviews.
- Employers – Higher rates of absenteeism and presenteeism (working while unwell) translate into lost productivity. The study cites a record 2.8 million Britons being "too sick to work", a figure that includes mental‑health‑related incapacity.
- Young adults – The report flags almost one million 16‑ to 24‑year‑olds classified as NEETs (not in education, employment or training). Mental distress is both a cause and consequence of this disengagement, creating a feedback loop.
- Policy‑makers – The evidence provides a quantitative basis for evaluating the mental‑health cost of future fiscal or constitutional decisions. It also highlights the value of pre‑emptive safety nets, such as universal credit uplift during crises.
What could go wrong or remain unclear?
The study relies on self‑reported GHQ‑12 scores, which capture symptoms but not clinical diagnoses. A rise in scores could reflect heightened willingness to report distress rather than a true increase in disease prevalence. Moreover, the attribution of monthly GP visit increases to a single event assumes no other concurrent factors – for example, the cost‑of‑living crisis that deepened throughout 2022 may have contributed alongside the mini‑budget.
Another limitation is the focus on adults aged 16 and over; children’s mental health, which has also been affected by school closures and family stress, is not directly measured. Finally, the data stop in 2024‑25, leaving a gap for any post‑2026 developments, such as the outcome of Prof Peter Fonagy’s upcoming inquiry.
A practical step for this week
If you’ve felt more anxious, irritable or low‑mood in the past few months, consider booking a brief NHS mental‑health check‑up – a 10‑minute telephone or video appointment is now available in most GP practices. Early contact can prevent symptoms from becoming entrenched, and the NHS offers free online resources (e.g., NHS Uplift) that guide self‑management while you wait for a full appointment.
